How to Optimise Regional Strategy in 2026

Rather than marking a cyclical rebound, 2026 is increasingly seen as a consolidation year, in which diversification-led growth ends up being more deeply embedded in the region's economic model, lowering dependence on hydrocarbons and increasing strength to external shocks. Forecasts from major institutions broadly converge on a stronger GCC growth profile in 2026 than in 2025, supported by durable domestic demand, continued non-oil growth, and (to differing degrees) a firmer hydrocarbon contribution.

ANSR July GCC PRs 50DR+

The World Bank, on the other hand, projects 3.2 percent growth in 2025, speeding up to 4.5 percent in 2026. The IMF Sees momentum improving, with GCC output growth predicted to increase from 1.7 percent in 2024 to 3.3 percent on average in 2025, showing a shift toward more favorable total conditions.

The IMF's World Economic Outlook (October 2025) projects worldwide development reducing to 3.1 percent in 2026, with advanced economies around 1.5 percent and emerging market and establishing economies simply above 4 percent. On that comparison, a 4.44.5 percent GCC growth would place the region materially ahead of the world average and somewhat above (or broadly in line with) the emerging-market aggregate, enhancing the GCC's status as a reasonably high-growth pocketprovided that regional danger conditions stay contained and reform momentum holds.

Data from the GCC Statistical Center reveal that non-oil sectors currently represent more than 73 percent of total GDP, a share that has continued to increase as federal governments expand investment in services, infrastructure, and innovation. According to Oxford Economics, non-energy activity across the GCC is predicted to grow by around 4.1 percent in 2026, supported by strong labor markets, improving credit conditions, and increasing financial investment in technology and AI-related facilities.

ANSR July GCC PRs 50DR+

Industrial Excellence: a Key Pillar for Regional Growth

Public-sector investment and reform stay main to sustaining this pattern. Policy measures focused on attracting foreign direct financial investment, relieving foreign ownership rules, broadening capital markets, and supporting private-sector involvement continue to underpin non-oil expansion and minimize the region's exposure to oil cost volatility. While hydrocarbons no longer dominate the growth outlook, oil incomes are expected to play a supportive function in 2026.

Oxford Economics expects Brent crude rates to fall below USD 60 per barrel in early 2026, limiting the near-term contribution of oil extraction to GDP. However, oil supply is anticipated to rise again in the second half of the year, with a complete unwinding of remaining production caps likely by mid-2027.

ANSR July GCC PRs 50DR+

Macroeconomic conditions across the GCC remain broadly supportive of growth. Inflation is expected to stay low, with the IMF forecasting average inflation of 2 percent across the region in 2026. Stable rates are assisting preserve real family incomes and underpin consumer spending, which Oxford Economics anticipates to grow by an average of 3.5 percent over 20262027.